Last December, along with most economic forecasters, I predicted mortgage interest rates would be at least 7 percent by the end of the year. We were wrong. However, I am confident that interest rates will rise as we move into the new year. The state of our economy is still fuzzy, which in my opinion means rates will start rising in the months to come.

If you read the newspapers, you know that real estate sales are down, especially for condominium units. Developers who are faced with many unsold units are offering such things as free plasma television sets or free car rentals to lure buyers. However, there are anomalies, especially here in the Washington area. I recently learned of one cooperative apartment that generated five contract offers. That may be unusual in today’s marketplace, but it’s not unique.

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Always good for a couple of $30 million-plus yearly sales, the Florida real estate market maintained its presence on our list, and, according to local brokers, things in Miami Beach are just heating up. “For the people who can afford to buy these properties, there’s so much money on the sidelines right now it’s not even funny,” says Nelson Gonzalez, who brokered developer Ugo Columbo’s purchase — at between $31 million and $35 million — of Carl Fisher’s Miami Beach villa. “I’ve been in high-end luxury real estate in Miami Beach the last 20 years and this was by far the best year ever.”

What’s driving the market’s top tier? High-end luxury sales can remain out of synch with market trends because the sector of the market is volume volatile and not price volatile. This means that sales are less affected by general market forces — because potential buyers always have enough money — but more affected by whether rare properties are available.

“I have multiple clients who want to buy $50 (million) or $60 million properties, but we can’t find them one right now,” says Mauricio Umansky, a broker at Hilton & Hyland. “When you’re going to spend that much money, you have to find the perfect property.”

Expect 2007 to be another blowout year, especially in New York where Wall Street bonuses came in above last year’s record levels. “With all the money that’s been building up, expect an active market next year,” says Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, a residential real estate appraisal firm. “Money like that has residual benefits, and momentum has been growing for a while.”

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Homebuilding, one of the click here for articlemost battered sectors of the U.S. economy in recent months, showed surprising strength in November, according to a government report Wednesday. New homes sold at an annual pace of 1.05 million, up from the revised annual rate of 1.01 million in October. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast that home sales would rebound to a 1.02 million pace.

The median average home price came in at $251,700 in November, up from the $248,500 level in October. The median price, that is, the point at which half the homes sell for more and half sell for less, had shown declines earlier in the fall because of a glut of homes available for sale on the market.

The supply of completed new homes available for sale continued to creep up, setting yet another record at 169,000. But all new homes available for sale, which includes those with permits but not yet started as well as those under construction, was slightly lower. That took the inventory of new homes on the market down to an estimated 6.3 months’ supply in November, compared to 6.7 months in October and 7.2 months in July, when new home sales slowed to a crawl.

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When it comes to discussing the future of the real estate market in Manatee and Sarasota counties, just call Kerry Kirschner the Grinch who stole Christmas. A prolonged weakness in house prices will no longer allow consumers to extract cash or liquidity from their home,” said Kirschner, the executive director of The Argus Foundation, a Sarasota-based liaison between business and government. “If homeowners face mortgage refinancing, increased property taxes and insurance, without consideration of maintenance expense, the homeowner mortgage financial obligation triangle will rapidly absorb household liquidity for many people in our area.”

Construction of new homes is expected to decrease by 21 percent nationally in 2007, Kirschner said at the foundation’s monthly “Meet the Minds” membership luncheon Wednesday at the Sara Bay Country Club. “Locally, we are further impacted by a large inventory overhang above new construction and resales that will not only limit further new construction, but will probably cause many builders to abandon our market until inventory levels come back in line with supply and demand,” Kirschner said.

Despite such a grim forecast for the future of the area’s real estate market, Dale Friedley of the Manatee County Property Appraiser’s Office, said the Sunshine State seems to have escaped fears of possible housing depreciation. “There’s no evidence at all of depreciation in Florida,” Friedley said.

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Brevard County’s housing market continued to be in the doldrums in November, according to the latest statistics from the Home Builders & Contractors Association of Brevard.

The number of housing construction permits issued countywide in November was 235, down from 613 permits in November 2005 and down from a short-lived increase of 512 permits in October of this year.

Of the 235 permits issued last month, 201 were for single-family homes — the lowest number for single-family construction for any month this year. The 201 single-family permits in November were down significantly from earlier this year, when more than 400 single-family home permits were being issued each month.

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The Florida Department of State has approved the format for a petition to help Florida homeowners with homestead exemptions keep lower tax bills even if they move – popularly known as “portability.” “The approval clears the way for supporters to begin collecting signatures needed to place “Save Our Homes Portability” on the November 2008 ballot,” said Palm Beach County Property Appraiser Gary Nikolits. “The Florida Legislature could add the issue of Portability to its January special session agenda and adopt our ballot language,” said Nikolits, a member of the Board that sponsors the petition drive. “That would save us the work of gathering the nearly 750,000 signatures needed to place the issue on the ballot,” he added.

Property appraisers who must administer the program if it is adopted wrote the portability language, Nikolits said. “It simply makes sense that if property appraisers have the responsibility of implementing portability, they would be the best ones to write the proposal. Property appraisers understand how it should work to make it fair to taxpayers and taxing authorities alike.” Nikolits said.

Under the proposal, a homeowner with a Homestead Exemption could transfer a cap valued up to $400,000 to a more expensive property. If a homeowner is moving down in the market, that transfer could not exceed 50 percent of the market value of the new property. Portability would be permitted throughout the state.

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Zillow.com recently allowed homeowners and real estate agents to advertise for-sale properties on its Web site at no cost. The Seattle-based company, which rocked the real estate world this year when it began offering free online valuations of almost 70 million U.S. homes, made the announcement last week. It also announced a feature called “Make Me Move” for owners who’d consider selling if the price were right. If it catches on, this could create a shadow “for sale by owner” market with the potential to bypass formally listing homes or paying agent commissions, which are already under pressure.

Homeowners adding “for sale” or “Make Me Move” data can upload photos, neighborhood commentary and enhanced descriptions of the property, potentially justifying a price higher than Zillow’s estimate, or “Zestimate.” Real estate agents can add contact information and link to their own Web sites for free. For an industry that’s long sought to control for-sale information, “it’s a pretty radical approach, although it also seems obvious in a way,” said Brad Inman, founder of the real estate news service Inman News. Historically, Inman says, online real estate companies have sought permission from multiple-listing services or real estate companies to display listings. Now, Inman predicts, “agents will jump at the chance, particularly in this market,” to bypass that step. It’s already happening on other sites, such as craigslist, which allows posts of for-sale properties, complete with photos.

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