When it comes to discussing the future of the real estate market in Manatee and Sarasota counties, just call Kerry Kirschner the Grinch who stole Christmas. A prolonged weakness in house prices will no longer allow consumers to extract cash or liquidity from their home,” said Kirschner, the executive director of The Argus Foundation, a Sarasota-based liaison between business and government. “If homeowners face mortgage refinancing, increased property taxes and insurance, without consideration of maintenance expense, the homeowner mortgage financial obligation triangle will rapidly absorb household liquidity for many people in our area.”

Construction of new homes is expected to decrease by 21 percent nationally in 2007, Kirschner said at the foundation’s monthly “Meet the Minds” membership luncheon Wednesday at the Sara Bay Country Club. “Locally, we are further impacted by a large inventory overhang above new construction and resales that will not only limit further new construction, but will probably cause many builders to abandon our market until inventory levels come back in line with supply and demand,” Kirschner said.

Despite such a grim forecast for the future of the area’s real estate market, Dale Friedley of the Manatee County Property Appraiser’s Office, said the Sunshine State seems to have escaped fears of possible housing depreciation. “There’s no evidence at all of depreciation in Florida,” Friedley said.

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